Based solely on the movies I’ve actually seen.
Best Picture
Nominated movies I’ve seen: Argo, Django Unchained, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty.
Nominated movies I haven’t seen: Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Les Mis, Life of Pi
My pick: Safety Not Guaranteed. It’s not nominated but it should’ve been.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominated performances I’ve seen: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)
Nominated performances I haven’t seen: Hugh Jackman (Les Mis)
My pick: Denzel Washington. 2nd place: Joaquin Phoenix
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominated performances I’ve seen: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Nominated performances I haven’t seen: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
My pick: Jennifer Lawrence
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominated performances I’ve seen: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Nominated performances I haven’t seen: NA
My pick: Robert De Niro
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominated performances I’ve seen: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Nominated performances I haven’t seen: Anne Hathaway (Les Mis), Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
My pick: Amy Adams